Business plans and cash flow models for real estate in insolvency
Going-concern forecast, liquidity plan, insolvency plan comparison and property cash flows: the numerical basis for the question "continue, restructure or realise?" – in Excel, with scenarios, readable for the court, the creditors' committee and lenders.
Every decision in the proceedings is a cash flow decision
Whether a property continues to be managed, a construction project is completed, an insolvency plan is submitted or the property is realised immediately – at the end there is always a comparison of cash flows over time. Courts, creditors' committees and estate lenders do not expect presentation slides for this, but a model they can recalculate themselves.
That is exactly what we deliver: integrated financial plans and property cash flows at the level of institutional investors, built like an acquisition model – only with the questions of the insolvency proceedings at the centre. Valuation and planning come from a single source; the assumptions in the cash flow are the same as in the valuation report.
Scope: We produce the figures. The legal assessment of the grounds for insolvency (§§ 17–19 InsO), the certificate under § 270d InsO and the audit of restructuring concepts remain with the administrator, the trustee, the auditor and legal advisers. Our models are built so that these reviews can be based on them – structurally following IDW S 11 and IDW S 6.
From the liquidity plan to the comparative calculation
Going-concern forecast
Integrated planning (profit, balance sheet, liquidity) over 12–24 months for property-holding companies – the numerical basis for the going-concern forecast under § 19 (2) InsO and for restructuring talks with banks.
- Rents, costs, capex, debt service per property
- Refinancing and sale scenarios
- Following IDW S 11 / IDW S 6
Liquidity and financial plan
Weekly or monthly liquidity planning for the application and the proceedings: 13-week plan, six-month financial plan under § 270a (1) InsO, planning of the costs of the proceedings and proof that they are covered.
- Self-administration and protective shield
- Rolling, reconciled against actuals
- Pre-financing of insolvency money, estate loans
Insolvency plan – comparative calculation
Figures for the descriptive and the constructive part (§ 220 InsO): liquidation scenario with realisation proceeds, rights to separate satisfaction and costs against the plan scenario – group recovery rates, prohibition of obstruction (§ 245) and minority protection (§ 251).
- Plan vs. standard liquidation for each creditor group
- Property proceeds from our own valuation
- Also for restructuring plans (StaRUG)
Property cash flow: hold, refurbish or sell
Present value comparison of the options for individual properties: immediate realisation, letting until a better point in the market, reduction of vacancy, partial refurbishment, cold receivership with a contribution to the costs of the estate.
- Decision paper for the creditors' committee
- Agreement with secured creditors
- Linked to market value and liquidation value
Completion business plan
For developer and project insolvencies: cost to complete, construction period, sell-off, purchaser claims, estate loan requirement and repayment – the basis for the decision to complete and for financing the completion.
- Cost estimate with building experts
- Sales and letting scenarios
- Comparison with realisation in the current state
Data room & bidding process
Figures for a transfer restructuring or an asset sale: cash flow for the data room, rent roll, key figures for the teaser and the information memorandum, plausibility check of incoming offers.
- Prepared to investor standards
- Comparison of offers for the creditors' committee
- Q&A support during the process
Models that third parties can review
Our models follow the conventions of institutional cash flow modelling: a clear separation of inputs, calculation and output, no hidden constants, every assumption with a source. Scenarios are controlled by switches, sensitivities are pre-calculated. That way the creditors' committee can change the rent assumption and see immediately what happens to the recovery rate.
We build the models in Excel – the format that banks, advisers and courts can read. For portfolios or for continuous updating during the proceedings we add data imports and reporting that can be refreshed in a few steps.
Tobias Streckel has spent more than 20 years building acquisition, fund and development models for institutional investors. That experience goes into every insolvency model – more on this at cashflow-modelling.de.
Four steps to the model
Stage of the proceedings, decision, audience, deadline. Result: scope of the model and fixed price.
Rent roll, costs, financing, actual figures, valuation results. Gaps are documented as assumptions.
Structure, scenarios, sensitivities, plausibility check. Assumptions agreed with you.
Model, documentation, summary report, walkthrough. Updates during the proceedings on request.
Frequently asked questions about business plans and cash flow
What distinguishes a going-concern forecast from an ordinary business plan?
The going-concern forecast answers a yes/no question: is the company fully financed over the forecast period – normally the current and the following financial year? It therefore has to be integrated (profit, balance sheet, liquidity), based on documented assumptions and more likely than not. A business plan in an investor process may be more ambitious; a going-concern forecast has to be prudent and verifiable. We build both, but calibrated differently.
How quickly can a liquidity plan be available?
A 13-week liquidity plan is ready within 5–10 business days once the actual figures are available; the six-month financial plan for the self-administration application within 1–2 weeks. A complete going-concern forecast with integrated planning takes 2–4 weeks. Where deadlines are tight we agree a staged delivery: liquidity first, then profit and balance sheet.
Where do the property values in the comparative calculation come from?
From our own valuation – market value and liquidation value per property with a proceeds forecast for each realisation route. That is the advantage of valuation and planning from a single source: the liquidation scenario in the insolvency plan uses the same figures as the report in the appendix, and both can be defended together.
Can you review or take over an existing model?
Yes. We audit existing Excel models (formula errors, circular references, implausible assumptions), document the findings and, on request, take over the model for further updating. That is often faster than building a new one – sometimes a rebuild is the more honest recommendation. We will tell you after a look at the model.
Continue, restructure or realise – let us work it through
Tell us about the decision ahead and your deadline. Within one business day you receive an assessment of the scope of the model and a fixed price offer.